RPOlosophy

The other week the Pinstripe sales team was meeting and reviewing our sales funnel.

I was sharing the pluses and minuses of a current opportunity when one of my sales counterparts said “The chances of winning this RFP are 1 in 1,000.”

So I got to thinking, what does 1 in 1,000 really mean? I know that 1 in 1,000 seems fairly remote but how remote. I needed some context. Something I can really relate to.

Fortunately, there is a new website called the Book of Odds that can shed some light. The Book of Odds not only allows you to search for those odds that concern or interest you the most, but also to understand probability by comparing the odds of unfamiliar events to others you have personally experienced.
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So as a point of reference, I picked several familiar things that I have personal experience with: Wisconsin and Pizza.

Going to the Book of Odds, I learned that my chances of winning the RFP are somewhere between meeting a person in Wisconsin employed as a Chemist (1 in 1,693) and finding a US adult who has never had cold pizza for breakfast (1 in 2.56).

I was getting closer but there was still too much ambiguity. I needed to narrow things down and find a better framework to judge my true chances. I decided my next step was to check some baseball odds. Another subject I am fairly familar with.

I couldn’t find any baseball thing that was exactly 1 in 1,000; however, I did discover the chances a Major League Baseball game will be a no-hitter is 1 in 775. Not exact, but sort of close.

Finally some context I can relate to and realize…I’m never going to win this deal.

But the new RFP I’m working on, I think my chances of winning are as likely as meeting some who finds airplane travel a frightening experience. You know 1 in 5.56.

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 5th, 2009 at 10:05 am and is filed under RPOlosophy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.