Another set of predictions are coming your way… my guess is that there are tens of thousands of pages of them for you to choose from, so here’s my take on 2010. The first is that it IS NOT just a “new year” – it is the beginning of a “new decade,” and I believe we need to think in short, medium and long term ways both to “kickstart” 2010 and to invest in our visions for 2020.
There’s been a huge downsizing in HR and talent acquisition, and we will not see employment levels come back to the way they were. Employer engagement levels are at an all time low. Almost 60% of individuals polled claim they will look for a new opportunity as soon as the economy turns around. We are confronting a looming crisis in organizational capability – and thus in HR – when the recovery takes hold. And this can be a GOOD thing if you prepare for it and take advantage of it.
What we have experienced is not just a recession, but a “resetting.” We are going to come out of this in a new normal, and even when jobs come back they will have taken a different form and possibly a new geography, because organizations have learned how to do without and how to do things differently.
As a longtime serial entrepreneur in the HR and technology space, and currently the founder and CEO of an HR and recruitment process outsourcing company, I witnessed the hopeful signs of a significant up tick in new business in the fourth quarter of 2009. But personally, I think this is a case of premature optimism. We’ve seen some “green shoots”, as the analysts and economists like to say, and now a lot of people are saying “Wow, it’s not getting worse anymore we’re out of the recession.” But as that famous Paul Simon song “The Boxer” says,
“Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest …”
I can’t help wondering what the recovery will look like when so much has changed, when local and state governments are drowning, consumer spending is timid, and government deficits are crippling. I see 2010 as “the year of uncertainty”, which will also make it “the year we spent in waiting”; waiting for a clear picture of what to expect from interest rates, tax policy, regulatory changes, healthcare reform, and on and on.
Following are snapshots of my predictions for some of the events we can expect:
- We will see increased turn-over due to damaged employee trust and loyalty;
- Jobs will not come back as they were OR where they were;
- Supplier churn will be greater than normal;
- HR will get its arms around how to integrate social media in a way that matters – both internally and externally;
- HR leaders and professionals that are also business leaders will thrive; those that don’t have the requisite business and interpersonal skills will falter;
- Government will discover outsourcing; and finally;
- We will see a pent up demand for infrastructure in 2010 as a backlash to the lack of investment in this area in ’08 and ’09.
Please stay tuned as I make good on my “New Decade” resolution to update this blog more often, to invite guests to blog here, and to continue to listen to you.
Tags: CEO, healthcare reform, HR, Paul Simon, predictions, recession, regulatory changes, talent acquisition, tax policy, technology
